From:                              John (Jack) R. Venrick [[email-masked]]

Sent:                               Sunday, November 14, 2010 9:02 PM

To:                                   AJack R. Venrick

Subject:                          Sun surges: Yet another apocalypic theory to worry about

----- Original Message -----

Sent: Friday, July 30, 2010 12:09 AM

Sun surges: Yet another apocalypic theory to worry about

In 2013, our sun will
hit its solar maximum, creating disturbances that could take out the power grid

by Kate
Lunau on Monday, July 19, 2010    http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/07/19/severe-space-weather-warning/

NASA/Getty
Images

In March 1989, six
million Quebecers lost power for nine hours after a massive solar
flare—an explosion of magnetic energy from the sun—created electric
ground currents here on Earth, collapsing the power grid. Another geomagnetic
storm, in 1921, brought ground currents 10 times as strong. But the fiercest
one ever recorded, called the Carrington Event of 1859, electrified telegraph
lines—even setting telegraph papers on fire—and created northern
lights visible as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. If such a storm were to strike
today, the consequences would be devastating. But NASA researchers say severe
space weather could be on the way.

Every
11 years, for reasons that aren’t completely understood, our sun hits
what’s called its solar maximum: an especially active period when sun
spots, solar flares and “coronal mass ejections—these clouds of
plasma that flow out of the sun at millions of kilometers an hour,” as
astronomer Sten Odenwald puts it, are more likely to occur. The resulting
streams of particles and pulses of electromagnetic energy create what’s
called space weather, which can have all sorts of impacts here, throwing the
Earth’s magnetic field into disarray and disrupting everything from GPS
systems to the power grid. We’re now coming out of a quiet period for the
sun, as it wakes up and moves toward the next solar maximum, expected in 2013,
and experts say we should be preparing for the worst.

If the 1921 storm were
to repeat itself today, massive blackouts would affect more than 130 million
people, according to a 2009 NASA report on space weather, and over 350
transformers would risk permanent damage. Water distribution would be
“affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in
12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service,
fuel re-supply and so on.” The social and economic impact might last for
years. A repeat of the Carrington Event (thought to be at least 50 per cent
stronger than the 1921 superstorm) could cripple banking systems, air travel
and satellites; in the first year alone, the report warns, it could cost $2
trillion, 20 times more than hurricane Katrina.

Whether we’ll
actually get such a superstorm is hard to predict, since the science
doesn’t yet exist to accurately forecast it, says Richard Fisher, head of
NASA’s heliophysics division. However, in the report, researchers noted
that the electronic power grid, “modern society’s cornerstone
technology,” is especially vulnerable to solar activity. Coronal mass
ejections temporarily compress the Earth’s magnetic field,
“stretching it out on the midnight side, opposite the sun,”
Odenwald says, generating currents in the ground powerful enough to melt copper
windings in transformers. At the solar maximum, he adds, there might be 10
coronal mass ejections in a week.

While we’d be
more affected by a solar storm than ever before, we’re slowly becoming
better prepared for it, too. “To a degree, we can see [storms]
coming,” Fisher says, thanks to remote sensing in space. NASA recently
launched the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which shows material streaming
off the sun in previously impossible detail. Another device, called ACE, is
“like a wind sock for solar wind,” Fisher says, and can give some
advance warning of impending storms. That way, power grid operators can reserve
capacity to counteract their effects, a lesson learned after the Quebec
disaster; operators can switch satellites off-line, reroute flights, or warn
people to put off “hunt[ing] an oil pipeline on the bottom of the ocean
by GPS navigation,” Fisher says. Whether there’s a superstorm
coming from space or not, it’s best to be prepared.